Last October, in the wake of the Las Vegas shooting, the Washington Post promoted a highly deceptive "study" that reached this preordained conclusion: "States with looser concealed carry laws have more gun deaths" Case closed, right? Wrong!
The problems with this study are massive. How did an honest gun control advocate respond? David Hemenway, director of the Harvard Injury Control Research Center said simply, “I don’t believe that.” Quite simply, this so called study does not pass the smell test!
So, rather than take my word for it, let's look at the facts, point by point:
Well, first, they are hoping you will think this is the homicide rate. It isn't. This is a statistic made up by gun control groups - it is not an official government stat. It combines dissimilar incidents (Suicides, criminal homicides, self defense homicides and accidents). Each of these is very different from the others and within each category there are many causes. Are we really expected to believe that shall issue concealed carry laws cause more suicides? Is it ethical to include criminals shot by police (justifiably) in this phony "gun death" figure?
Second, this made up stat really has nothing to do with licensed concealed carry. Why? Simple: This stat is made up of all firearms related deaths - homicides (including justifiable homicides), suicides and accidents. The problem is that 2/3 of the deaths are suicides! Obviously, you don't need a carry permit to kill yourself - in fact, you do not even need a gun.
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| Even Total Firearms Bans Do Not Prevent Suicides (All Data From Wikipedia) |
So, why do shall issue concealed carry states have higher firearms suicide rates?
Well, logically, it is because shall issue states have high firearms ownership rates. This means that there are more firearms available. Does the availability of firearms affect the overall suicide rate? Given that the nations with the highest suicide rates have virtual or actual firearms bans - it is abundantly clear that even total gun bans do not prevent suicides. People simply choose another method. Additionally, a link to concealed carry is non-existent!
Third, most homicides are completely unrelated to concealed carry - to include those committed by previously convicted felons (who cannot get permits), domestic homicides committed in homes (where no carry permit is needed), homicides committed in the course of armed robberies and premeditated murders. The people who commit these murders clearly will not be stopped by the lack of a permit. To determine the effect of licensed concealed carry you need to actually look at the behavior of CCW permit holders (which we will do later).
However, the article does not stop with the phony "gun death" figures. It goes on to infer that shall issue concealed carry laws cause higher homicide rates. This is also easy to refute. First, we will examine the claim that shall issue states have higher homicide rates, then we will examine the inferred claim that people licensed to carry commit homicides.
We will begin by looking at ALL THE DATA. The chart below shows the CCW status and the 2015 homicide rate per 100k population directly from the FBI's website for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
First, note that while the "study" looked only at firearms homicides, we are going to look at the overall homicide rate. Why? Well, because unlike the anti-gun rights crowd, we care about every life lost. Limiting the "study" to firearms homicides eliminates any reduction in non-firearms homicides that citizen carry may have prevented and includes any justifiable homicides permit holders (or others) may have committed.
Second, note that the "study" focuses upon "opposite ends of the spectrum", specifically what they say is the lowest state (Hawaii) and the worst state (Louisiana). They then argue that since Hawaii is essentially the most restrictive state in the union and Louisiana is a less restrictive state (shall issue, with permits required) that this proves their point. There is only one problem: Hawaii is not the state with the lowest homicide rate. That honor goes to New Hampshire, which in 2015 was a shall issue state and is now a Constitutional Carry state. So, both ends of the spectrum are occupied by "less restrictive" states. The authors of this so called study are "cherry picking" their data to make it say what they want it to say.
Second, note that the "study" focuses upon "opposite ends of the spectrum", specifically what they say is the lowest state (Hawaii) and the worst state (Louisiana). They then argue that since Hawaii is essentially the most restrictive state in the union and Louisiana is a less restrictive state (shall issue, with permits required) that this proves their point. There is only one problem: Hawaii is not the state with the lowest homicide rate. That honor goes to New Hampshire, which in 2015 was a shall issue state and is now a Constitutional Carry state. So, both ends of the spectrum are occupied by "less restrictive" states. The authors of this so called study are "cherry picking" their data to make it say what they want it to say.
Let's look at some other facts:
Of the 51 jurisdictions in the United States in 2015, 43 (84.5%) were shall issue or constitutional carry and eight (15.5%) were restrictive.
Of the five lowest homicide rate states, one is "restrictive" and four are "less restrictive" (three shall issue and one Constitutional Carry). If citizen carry increases homicides why are there so many states with liberalized carry laws in the lowest 10%?
Of the five highest homicide rate jurisdictions, two are "restrictive" and three are "less restrictive". In this case, we see restrictive states slightly over represented in the top five.
So, when we look at all the states, if anything, it appears that citizen carry (by permit or Constitutional Carry) does not increase homicides, it reduces them.
Finally, what happens when you average the restrictive may issue states and compare that number with the average of more permissive shall issue and Constitutional Carry states and the overall US homicide rate?
Of the 51 jurisdictions in the United States in 2015, 43 (84.5%) were shall issue or constitutional carry and eight (15.5%) were restrictive.
Of the five lowest homicide rate states, one is "restrictive" and four are "less restrictive" (three shall issue and one Constitutional Carry). If citizen carry increases homicides why are there so many states with liberalized carry laws in the lowest 10%?
Of the five highest homicide rate jurisdictions, two are "restrictive" and three are "less restrictive". In this case, we see restrictive states slightly over represented in the top five.
So, when we look at all the states, if anything, it appears that citizen carry (by permit or Constitutional Carry) does not increase homicides, it reduces them.
Finally, what happens when you average the restrictive may issue states and compare that number with the average of more permissive shall issue and Constitutional Carry states and the overall US homicide rate?
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| Data above from 2015 FBI stats |
Note that states with some form of citizen carry, when taken as a whole, have a slightly less than average homicide rate - not the higher than average rate that would be expected if citizen carry increased homicide rates.
Looking at the restrictive jurisdictions, again when taken as a whole, they have a much higher than average rate of homicides - not the lower than average rate we would expect if restricting citizen carry really saved lives.
Looking at the restrictive jurisdictions, again when taken as a whole, they have a much higher than average rate of homicides - not the lower than average rate we would expect if restricting citizen carry really saved lives.
So much for the data behind "the study". Let's move on to the most important test. Now let's do what anti-gun rights researchers never do: Let's look at the actual data regarding the behavior of people licensed to carry. After all, if less restrictive carry laws are the cause of increased homicides (as opposed to, perhaps a reaction to it) then data should show that the small subset of the population (CCW permit holders) is committing a lot of crime. The only problem for the anti-gun rights crowd is that ALL available data on CCW permit holders show exactly the opposite.
Two states maintain and provide to the public details on the criminal behavior of those licensed to carry in their states: Florida and Texas. Let's look at the report from Florida first:
Two states maintain and provide to the public details on the criminal behavior of those licensed to carry in their states: Florida and Texas. Let's look at the report from Florida first:
The wonderful thing about Florida's data is that we have 30 years worth. I have posted the summary report above. Note that out of a total of 3.8 million permits issued a total of 168 have been revoked for misconduct of any kind involving firearms. That is 0.00425% of permits issued - and remember, that is not the number of people murdered by CCW license holders, it is the percentage of permits revoked for any misconduct that was firearms related. An additional 13,066 licenses (0.34%) were revoked for misconduct that did not involve firearms or a mental health condition.
Even using the anti-gun rights Violence Policy Center's figures for 2008 - 2011 for Florida (which is like higher than the actual), there are 27 total killings that are unjustified homicides by CCW permit holders - only 7 of which took place outside the home (where a permit would be needed to have a gun). However, let's use the higher number of 27 and divide that by 4 to get an annual average of 7 murders per year committed by Florida's 1,861,076 current CCW license holders. Now let's convert that to the standard crime format of the rate per 100k. That means that while the rate of homicides in the state of Florida is 5.1 per 100k, the number of homicides committed by CCW licensees is only 0.38 per 100k of permit holders. Additionally, out of the 5.1 murders per 100k population, permit holders are responsible for only .034 per 100k. If all Florida residents were as law abiding as those licensed to carry the state's murder rate would drop by more than 92%!
Additionally, it is absurd to assert that this small number of murders would have been stopped if only there were no carry licenses available. After all, 3/4ths of them took place in the home - where no permit is needed. It is also absurd to argue that there is no offsetting benefit to licensed carry - especially when local news reports contain many accounts of successful self defense incidents by licensed persons.
Even using the anti-gun rights Violence Policy Center's figures for 2008 - 2011 for Florida (which is like higher than the actual), there are 27 total killings that are unjustified homicides by CCW permit holders - only 7 of which took place outside the home (where a permit would be needed to have a gun). However, let's use the higher number of 27 and divide that by 4 to get an annual average of 7 murders per year committed by Florida's 1,861,076 current CCW license holders. Now let's convert that to the standard crime format of the rate per 100k. That means that while the rate of homicides in the state of Florida is 5.1 per 100k, the number of homicides committed by CCW licensees is only 0.38 per 100k of permit holders. Additionally, out of the 5.1 murders per 100k population, permit holders are responsible for only .034 per 100k. If all Florida residents were as law abiding as those licensed to carry the state's murder rate would drop by more than 92%!
Additionally, it is absurd to assert that this small number of murders would have been stopped if only there were no carry licenses available. After all, 3/4ths of them took place in the home - where no permit is needed. It is also absurd to argue that there is no offsetting benefit to licensed carry - especially when local news reports contain many accounts of successful self defense incidents by licensed persons.
The Many Defensive Gun Uses More Than Offset The Few Times CCW Permit Holders Commit Crimes
The data from Florida is clear: Those licensed to carry commit murders at a rate far below that of the public at large. There is no way that they are causing an increase in homicides.
Now, let's look at Texas - the other state that keeps detailed records of the behavior of their CCW licensees. Let's start with a study done by a police publication:
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| A Study Done By A Police Publication Shows That Cops Commit Crimes More Often Than CCW Licensees |
OK, that's crimes in general - what about the subject at hand, homicides? Well, here we have good stats as well. In 2016, according to figures published in the New York Times, there were slightly over one million valid Carry Concealed Handgun Licenses (CHLs) in the state. According to official statics for the same year these one million people committed a grand total of two murders. A bit of simple math gives us a CHL murder rate of 0.2 per 100k. The FBI shows a Texas 2016 murder rate of 5.3 per 100k. That means that people licensed to carry are roughly 25 times less likely to commit murder than the general public.
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| Above Stats Are Per 100k Population/CHL Licensees |
So, let's review - the Study promoted in the Washington Post:
1) Commits the most basic error of confusing correlation with causation
2) Uses a bogus statistic that combines dissimilar data in order to confuse readers
3) Even if the above mentioned statistic isn't bogus - it has nothing to do with licensed concealed carry
1) Commits the most basic error of confusing correlation with causation
2) Uses a bogus statistic that combines dissimilar data in order to confuse readers
3) Even if the above mentioned statistic isn't bogus - it has nothing to do with licensed concealed carry
4) Cherry picks data in order to reach a predetermined conclusion
6) Ignores the 50 state (plus D.C.) data because it would force a different conclusion
7) Completely ignores actual official data on the behavior of CCW permit/license holders because it would destroy their entire argument.
All of the above in order to promote the completely false narrative that some of the most law abiding people in the nation - those licensed to carry - are somehow responsible for an increase in homicides.
The WaPo's new motto is "Democracy Dies In Darkness" - it should be "The Truth Dies At The Washington Post".
All of the above in order to promote the completely false narrative that some of the most law abiding people in the nation - those licensed to carry - are somehow responsible for an increase in homicides.
The WaPo's new motto is "Democracy Dies In Darkness" - it should be "The Truth Dies At The Washington Post".
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