Thursday, May 9, 2019

Would The Loss Of The NRA Doom The Pro-Gun Movement?

Over the past week, I have read a lot of articles in the general press covering the "crisis" in the NRA.  The tone in most of them was, "The NRA is in deep trouble and when it falls, it will be the end of the pro-gun political movement."  Without accepting the fall of the NRA as a fact (we are, thankfully, far from that point), are they right?  If the NRA vanished tomorrow, would the fight for gun rights come to an end?

The answer to that question is: ABSOLUTELY NOT.  Here's why:


1) The NRA Is Far From The Only National Gun Rights Organization - It May Not Even Be The Most Effective One


While the NRA is certainly the largest gun rights group in the US, it is not the only one.  In fact, the NRA has experienced a great many defections to other gun rights groups in the last 15 years.  The two largest groups are the Gun Owners of America (GOA) and Second Amendment Foundation/Citizen's Committee for the Right to Keep and Bear Arms (SAF/CCRKBA).

Membership figures can be somewhat misleading, as they do not indicate just how active people are in the gun rights political and legal fight.  The NRA claims about 5 million members (and I believe them).  However, the average NRA member is likely less involved than members of either GOA or SAF.  The NRA is better known and, at least until now, likely the first organization someone getting involved in the political fight for gun rights would join.  Additionally, the NRA is much more than a
political organization.  The NRA issues safety standards, trains and certifies firearms instructors, operates a huge shooting range complex in New Mexico and operates two large firearms museums.

In contrast, GOA and SAF are exclusively involved in the gun rights battle.  While neither are as large as the NRA, they are not small groups.  The GOA has 2 million members and SAF/CCRKBA has at least 650,000 members.  In my opinion, both organizations are much more efficient than the NRA.   Both have mch smaller budgets, but are very effective.  



The GOA is very involved in monitoring legislation, in Washington and in most states.  They do a good job of alerting gun owners to legislation they believe should be defeated or supported.  In this regard they are at least as effective as the NRA, and significantly less likely to compromise.  If the NRA disappeared tomorrow, the GOA would almost certainly experience a sharp increase in membership.  After all the 5 million NRA members are not going to stop opposing gun control if the NRA folds.

In contrast, SAF/CCRKBA is much more focused on legal action.  In fact, they have won many more cases than the NRA has - with a much smaller budget.  Politically, they are slightly more likely to support some gun laws that contain both restrictions on and expansion of gun rights - especially when the proposed law is a net gain for gun rights.  
In addition to these two groups, there are many small national and state organizations, such as Jews for the Preservation of Firearms Ownership, the Firearms Policy Coalition, Calguns, etc.  If the NRA were to fold, these groups would also likely see
an increase in membership and funding.  This would result in a somewhat greater focus of resources at the state and local level.

So, in spite of the hope of those opposed to gun rights, "taking down the NRA" would not end the battle over gun rights.


2) There Are Many State Organizations As Well

There are gun rights organizations in every state.   Consider those in the nation's most populous state, California:


The CalGuns Foundation.  Calguns is a very active organization focused on gun rights in the most populous state.  It has a strong online presence and has wide range of members and supporters drawn from every demographic group in the state, from liberal LBGT people to conservative Christians.  Calguns is active on both the political and legal fronts.


The California Rifle and Pistol Association (CRPA), founded in 1875 is affiliated with the NRA, but is separately incorporated, which means that even if the NRA were to vanish this group (and all the other state affiliates) would still be around.






The Gun Owners of California, is the state affiliate of the GOA.   Again, this organization would be unaffected by the collapse of the NRA - except, perhaps, an increase in membership and funding.





That's the situation in California - and it is typical.  Most states have at least an NRA affiliate and a GOA affiliate - and often additional groups, all of which would still be around if the NRA were to disappear. 


3) Technology Has Transformed The "Gun Media"

In the 1970s, the NRA and a few monthly "gun magazines" were the only communication outlets informing pro-gun rights activists.  While these outlets still exist, a great deal has changed in the last 40 years.  NRATV and the NRA's publications are far from the only media outlets that are pro-2nd Amendment and keep pro-2nd Amendment voters informed.  In fact, other outlets, unconnected to the NRA, are far more popular in the firearms community.  Here is a brief overview. 

Radio/Podcasts

In addition to local firearms radio shows, a national, weekly, three hour radio show - Gun
Talk - airs on more than 220 stations each week.  In addition, Gun Talk has a strong online presence, including making every broadcast available as a podcast.   In addition there are a great many other gun rights podcasts.  This site lists 42 of the most popular - but there are hundreds more, some of which are quite popular.  



YouTube/Online Video


hickok45 has over 4 million subscribers
Gun channels are huge on YouTube.  Here are some of the most popular:  hickok45 
(4,160,934 subscribers), FullMag (2,406,907 subscribers), Iraqveteran8888 (2,158,370 subscribers), Edwin Sarkissian (1,864,081 subscribers), Forgotten Weapons (1,194,427 subscribers), TAOFLEDERMAUS (1,179,776 subscribers), Military Arms Channel (940,510 subscribers), Colion Noir (864,203 subscribers), sootch00 (827,028 subscribers), nutnfancy (795,559 subscribers),  and 22plinkster  (539,830 subscribers).  There are many, many more.  When you look at these numbers, it's easy to see why YouTube is resisting pressure from anti-gun rights groups to ban gun channels.  They have, however, continued to put more and more restriction on them.


However, should YouTube kick all gun channels off of their platform - a move that would cost them millions of viewers - these gun channels are ready.  They have another platform up and running: Full30.com.  Many of these channels have been uploading content to this site for well over a year - and informing their YouTube subscribers of this.  Even if YouTube drops the hammer and bans gun channels, they will not go away.



Should YouTube ban gun channels, content
creators already have an alternative site
Online Publications


Ammoland is only one of many websites
covering stories of interest to gun owners
In addition to video and podcasts there are many gun websites which cover stories of interest to the firearms community - including gun rights.  These include Guns.com, The Truth About Guns, Ammoland, and Personal Defense World are some of the most popular.

Social Media

In addition to all of the above resources, there are many social media pages and accounts that, in addition to their own content, provide links to all of the above online resources.  So far, most - if not all - online social media sites permit the sharing of pro-2A articles and videos.  Should they be stupid enough to ban pro-2A resources, users will simply move to one of the competitive platforms that would love to have the users.

Consider our own little Facebook page (Clergy in Support of the 2nd Amendment).  It has 2170 followers.  This means that when a link or a story is shared, it goes out to 2170 people.  Multiply that be several hundred, if not several thousand similar pages, and it becomes apparent that in a few hours information critical to the gun rights fight can reach millions in a few hours.


Conclusion:

Would losing the NRA be a huge blow to the gun rights cause?  Absolutely.  Would it end the fight - NO WAY.  In fact, it is possible that several much more efficient groups would experience a dramatic increase in membership and funding.  Anti-gun rights groups should be careful what they wish for.

No comments:

Post a Comment