Does the U.S. Really Lead The World In Mass Shootings?

What Happens When You Actually Check?

What Happens When You Adjust For Population,

Instead Of Just Using Raw Numbers?

We will look at rates of mass shootings adjusted for population in a moment. First, let's disprove the notion that mass shootings "only happen here".  Pres. Obama famously said that "This doesn't happen anywhere else."  There is only one problem with that statement.  IT IS COMPLETELY FALSE.

The worst public mass shootings ranked beginning with the worst death tolls are as follows (US incidents in bold):

1) Gamboru and Ngala in Borno State, Nigeria, May 5 and 6, 2014:  300 dead

2) Borno massacre, in Konduga, Borno State, on May 7, 2014: 200 dead

3) Mumbai, India, November 26th to 29th, 2008: 164 dead

4) Peshawar, Pakistan, December 16, 2014: 148 dead

5) University College Campus of Garissa, in northeastern Kenya, April 2, 2015: 147 dead

6) Paris, France, November 14, 2015: 130 dead***

7) Konduga, Borno State, Nigeria on February 14, 2014: 121 dead

8) Izghe, Borno State, Nigeria, February 15, 2014: 106 dead

9) Manili, Philippines, June 19, 1971: 70 dead

10) Utoya, Norway, July 22, 2011: 67 dead from gunfire

11) Nairobi, Kenya, September 21, 2013: 63 dead

12) Yobe State, Nigeria, February 25, 2014: 59 dead

13) Maguindanao, Mindanao, Philippines, November 23, 2009:  57 dead

14) Las Vegas, Nevada USA, October 1, 2017: 57 dead (as of this writing)

15) Ipil, Philippines, April 3, 1995: 53 dead

16) Gujba, Yobe State, Nigeria, September 29, 2013: 50 dead

17) Orlando, Florida, USA, June 12, 2016: 49 dead

18) Karachi, Pakistan, May 13, 2015: 45 dead

19) Mamudo, Yobe State, Nigeria, July 6, 2013: 42 dead

20) Parade Lane, Rawalpindi, Pakistan, December 4, 2009: 40 dead

21) Istanbul, Turkey, January 1, 2017: 39 dead

22) Sousse, Tunisia, June 26, 2015: 39 dead

23) Kobin, Nigeria, June 23, 2014: 38 dead

24) Kaduna State, Nigeria, June 23, 2014: 38 dead

25) Chittisinghpura, India, March 18, 2000: 36 dead

So, out of the 25 worst public mass shootings is modern history, only 2 took place in the US.  Many are terrorist attacks - but so was at least one of the two US incidents.  So much for "these things only happen here".

The standard comeback to stats like those above is to compare the US to Europe.  Fine, let's do that - but let's do it right.  Anyone who truly wants to seek the truth will immediately admit that to do a valid comparison the vast differences in population must be taken into account.  After all the US population is 360 million plus.  France? 67 million.  The UK? 66 million.  Norway? 5.3 million.

It should be clear to any thinking person that comparing the raw numbers of any negative incident would result in the US looking worse.  After all, the US has many times the population of any European nation.  So, what happens when the public mass shooting data is adjusted for population differences?  

First, let's look at the death rate from public mass shootings.  What are the chances of being killed in such an incident in the US compared with European nations?  

(Graphic and Source: Crime Prevention Research Center)

What are your chances of dying in a mass shooting here in "gun happy America"?  Less than one in 10 million - less than half that in Norway.  You are more likely to die in a public mass shooting in 10 European nations than in the USA.  All of these nations have strict gun control.

Next, let's look at the frequency of mass shootings.  Adjusted for population, how many mass shooting incidents happen in each nation?

(Graphic and Source: Crime Prevention Research Center)

So the USA has a lower rate of mass shootings than 11 European nations.

So, when we compare the US with European nations, and adjust for population, the US is not even in the top ten of either the rate of occurrence or the chances of being killed!  Of course, it goes without saying that these nations all have much stricter gun control than the US.

OK, how do things look if we compare the US and the EU?  After all, the two entities are much closer in population.

First the US stats:

(Graphic and Source: Crime Prevention Research Center)

Here's the EU stats and the comparative totals:

(Graphic and Source: Crime Prevention Research Center)

So, looking at the number of fatalities, the EU leads 297 to 199 - however a great deal of this is explained by larger EU population.  Looking at the the rate of fatalities, the US is only slightly higher than the EU.  Looking at non-fatal injuries, the reverse is true.  The EU actually leads the US by nearly 50%.  In short, Europe, the place gun control advocates constantly point to as a shining example of gun control success, is certainly no better than the US and may actually be slightly worse.